Monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in December 2016 after growth of 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in November 2016. Our estimates suggest that the economy grew by 2 per cent in 2016, compared with 2.2 per cent in 2015. These figures are close to the UK's long run potential growth rate.

NIESR's latest quarterly forecast (published 2 nd November 2016) projects GDP growth of 2 per cent per annum in 2016 and 1.4 per cent in 2017. CPI inflation is expected to reach 3.8 per cent at the end of 2017.