"We expect a January non-farm payrolls print of 200k (consensus +175k, last +156k). We also expect the unemployment rate to fall one-tenth to 4.6% − which would mark a return to the cycle low - in part driven by reduced year-end retail layoffs. We expect average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% month over month and 2.8% year over year reflecting firming wage growth and state-level minimum wage hikes".