• BoC: outlook subject to "substantial uncertainty" about geopolitical developments, NAFTA renegotiation

Market news

25 October 2017

BoC: outlook subject to "substantial uncertainty" about geopolitical developments, NAFTA renegotiation

  • There could be room for more economic growth than projected without inflation rising materially above target

  • Canadian economy operating close to potential but wage and other data indicate there is still slack in the labor market

  • Effects of higher C$ on inflation expected to become stronger, with peak impact of -0.5 percentage points in q2 2018

  • Export growth seen slower than previously due to stronger c$; still expected to make solid contribution to gdp growth

  • High debt levels mean household spending likely more sensitive to interest rates than in the past

  • Lowers q3 growth forecast to 1.8 from 2.0 pct, sees 2.5 pct growth in q4; raises 2017 growth forecast to 3.1 pct from 2.8 pct, 2018 to 2.1 pct from 2.0 pct

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