The dollar's cyclical macro dynamics "have peaked" in the second quarter, ING analysts say. But the "ample degree of geopolitical noise bubbling in the background" is the reason why the it hasn't started to fall yet, they say.

"Leading U.S. activity indicators have been coming off the boil in the past month, while U.S. import and export price data earlier in the week also showed that the economy may be starting to feel the bite of Trump's tariff war." Without the U.S.-China trade dispute in the background, "this may have weighed on the dollar more explicitly." But for now, "troubles elsewhere are keeping the dollar aloft." - via WSJ