According to new ONS statistics published this morning, the UK economy expanded by 0.6 per cent in the three months to July compared with the previous three months after growing by 0.4 per cent in the second quarter (three months to June). The outturn was slightly higher than the 0.5 per cent monthly GDP forecast that we published last month for the same period. Building on the official data, our monthly GDP Tracker suggests that the economy is set to maintain the 0.6 per cent pace for the remainder of the third quarter.

The official data for July shows that retail sales responded strongly to recent warm weather and the football World Cup as did construction sector output which has recovered after a lacklustre performance at the start of 2018. Growth for the third quarter as a whole is likely to be driven by the service and construction sectors.