Australia's 'AAA' rating is underpinned by an effective policymaking framework that has supported 27 consecutive years of GDP growth in the face of substantial external, financial, and commodity price shocks. The government's credible commitment to fiscal consolidation from a debt level that is broadly in line with the current 'AAA' median also supports the rating.

Fitch expects real GDP to expand by 3.3% in 2018, following a jump in growth during the first half of the year, which compares favourably against the current 'AAA' median of 2.7%. Above-trend growth is underpinned by a strong global economy, resilient consumption, and increasing investment. We forecast growth to ease towards trend, reaching 2.8% in 2019 and 2.7% in 2020 on slower global growth and softer consumption. Rising public infrastructure investment will support near-term growth, particularly as the drag from declining mining investment fades.