• RBA retains record low interest rate, but trims growth outlook

Market news

5 February 2019

RBA retains record low interest rate, but trims growth outlook

  • Low rates supporting economy

  • Progress on unemployment, inflation expected to be gradual

  • Central scenario for gdp growth to average around 3 pct this year

  • Central scenario for gdp growth to slow in 2020 due to weaker resource exports

  • Inflation remains low and stable

  • Central scenario for inflation 2 percent in 2019, and 2.25 pct in 2020

  • Household consumption remains a source of uncertainty

  • Main domestic uncertainty remains around household spending, effect of falling house prices

  • Consumption data have been volatile

  • Growth in household income expected to pick up and support spending

  • Labour market remains strong

  • Wage growth to pick up gradually over time

  • Further fall in unemployment rate to 4.75 pct expected

  • Gdp growth in september quarter was weaker than expected

  • Credit conditions for some borrowers are tighter than they have been

  • Global economy slowed in second half of 2018, downside risks have increased

  • Seeing some signs of slowdown in global trade, partly stemming from trade tensions

  • Australian dollar has remained within the narrow range of recent times

  • Australia's terms of trade have increased, expected to decline over time

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