Goldman said it saw the probability of a no-deal exit at 15% and the probability of no Brexit at around 35%.

"There does exist a majority in the House of Commons willing to avoid a 'no deal' Brexit (if called upon to do so), but there does not yet exist a majority in the House of Commons willing to support a second referendum (at least at this stage)," Goldman said.

"The prime minister will repeatedly try to defer the definitive parliamentary vote on her negotiated Brexit deal, and the intensification of tail risks will continue to play a role in incentivising the eventual ratification of that deal." Goldman added.