The probability of a recession in the United States rose to 21% from 16% three months ago, according to economists in the S & P Global Ratings report. The increased risk is partly due to the flattening of the yield curve, as well as the fact that two out of ten key indicators monitored by S & P Global Ratings moved to negative territory for the first time since mid-2017. They note that easing the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve could improve their assessment in the coming months.

In January, the Fed decided to put a rise in interest rates on a pause, which returned calm to the markets. At the end of last year, investors' concerns about the growth prospects of the US economy provoked sharp market volatility.