Analysts at TD Securities are looking for the Canadian headline inflation to firm to 1.5% y/y in February, with prices up 0.7% m/m (market: 1.4% y/y, 0.6% m/m).

“Most of the monthly increase is driven by seasonal factors although stronger gasoline and food prices will also support the headline print. However, we do see downside risks to core inflation metrics. For retail sales, we are in line with the market and expect a 0.4% headline print on strong motor vehicle sales, leaving the ex-auto measure up 0.2%.”