• Chicago Fed president Evans: US economy is in a strong position

Market news

25 March 2019

Chicago Fed president Evans: US economy is in a strong position

  • not worried about the inflation pressure

  • it’s a good time to pause and be cautious

  • Fed funds rate arguably close to neutral

  • US monetary policy neither accommodative nor restrictive at this point

  • yield curve inversion ‘pretty narrow’

  • Fed is ‘mindful’ of financial market constraints

  • I want to see more inflation, do not expect rate increase until H2 next year

  • will take action if inflation undershoots

  • we have to be nervous when yield curve gets flat

  • fundamentals for U.S. growth look good

  • sees 1.75pct to 2pct u.s. Gdp growth this year

  • downside risks have risen, driven by uncertain outlook for global growth, trade policy

  • own outlook is less sanguine than it was last autumn

  • 'could be' upside surprises, but downside scenarios 'loom larger'

  • Fed's wait-and-see approach is prudent, given heightened uncertainty

  • some further rate hikes could be appropriate over time, if core inflation accelerates

  • policy may need to be loosened, if economy softens or inflation runs too low

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