According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, EUR/USD remains on the defensive following its rejection last week from the 200 day ma at 1.1471 and has sold off to the February low at 1.1234.

“The intraday Elliott waves counts are conflicting and it is possible that we retest the 1.1176 recent low. We suspect that it is trying to base but needs to do more work. Once above the 200 day ma, the cross should target the 1.1570 January high, together with the 55 week ma at 1.1609. We view 1.1176 as an interim low in place. Initial support lies at 1.1216 November low ahead of 1.1176 low. Long term trend (1-3 months): Completed a falling wedge – target the 55 week ma. Then the 1.1815 September 2018 high on route to 1.2000.”