Analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) suggest that the New Zealand economy has been evolving broadly as expected, but softening near-term indicators have led them to lower the near-term outlook.

• Economic tailwinds are blowing a little more softly than they once were, and that’s being reflected in waning capacity pressures.
• We have brought our OCR cut call forward, with a 25bp cut penciled in for August (previously November), and two follow-up moves in November and February. With the RBNZ now expected to come to the party a little earlier than we previously thought, it shouldn’t be long before the economy gets the stimulus it needs to push economic activity back into the inflation-building territory.