U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of increased tariffs on Chinese goods is an indication that U.S.-China trade negotiations “might have reached a sticking point,” Goldman Sachs said.

The bank said that chances of a successful deal are now lower, but suggested that an increase in tariffs could still be avoided — especially if the Chinese delegation still attends its meeting with U.S. negotiators this week.

Referring to Trump’s latest gambit, Goldman economists said: “This represents a shift from the optimistic statements from US officials over the last few weeks and suggests that the probability of a near-term agreement is at least slightly lower than it seemed to be recently.”

Yet Goldman said it believes an agreement could still be reached, adding that it is still “slightly” more likely to happen than an increase in duties. It put the odds of a tariff escalation by the end of the week at 40% currently.