Standard Chartered analysts note that the US has threatened to raise the tariff rate on $200bn of China’s imports to 25% from 10% on 10 May.

“Two rounds of US tariffs have been implemented so far. ‘Round one’ entailed 25% tariffs on $50bn of goods, split into two tranches of $34bn and $16bn; these were implemented on 6 July and 23 August 2018, respectively. Tariffs were originally due to be raised to 25% on 1 March 2019 (the end of the trade truce), but the US postponed this indefinitely in late February, citing progress on trade talks with China. Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines and Vietnam have emerged as the top five ‘winners’ from this round of tariffs. Raising tariff rates further could increase the benefits to these economies; meanwhile, a sudden trade deal rolling back tariffs could see the winners become losers, and vice versa.”