Analysts at Rabobank note that the U.S. international trade data for March will be published later today and this release is considered to be a key event of the day.

• The first two months of the year showed some narrowing in the trade deficit, and a further decline may have President Trump believing that his tariffs are helping out. However, the recent narrowing of the trade deficit may have been driven by temporary factors such as a production stop in China during the lunar New Year, as well as the build-up of inventories in the US during the second half of last year.
• Once this inventory depletes, imports inevitably have to pick up pace again, putting renewed pressure on the trade balance.