• EUR/GBP: more difficult now to predict Brexit process; towards 0.83 on a deal or parity on no-deal - Danske

Market news

17 May 2019

EUR/GBP: more difficult now to predict Brexit process; towards 0.83 on a deal or parity on no-deal - Danske

Danske Research discusses EUR/GBP outlook and maintains a neutral bias in the near-term.

"With the Brexit extension until 31 October and no reason to believe that May’s deal will pass or that the cross-party talks will be successful anytime soon, we think it is difficult to see GBP strengthening near-term. Hence, we expect EUR/GBP to remain rangebound around 0.85-0.87 in 1-3M. It is more difficult to predict what will happen when we get closer to the new Brexit deadline in October but as we think a further extension is likely, we expect the cross to remain in the 0.85-0.87 range in 3-12M too. In the event of a no-deal Brexit by the end of October, we still expect EUR/GBP to move towards parity. If May’s deal passes, we expect EUR/GBP to move down to 0.83".

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