20 May 2019
EUR shorts dropped, USD longs edged lower - Rabobank
Rabobank's analysts note USD longs edged lower but they have remained essentially consolidative since the middle of March, according to IMM net speculators’ positioning as at May 14, 2019.
- Having dropped lower in the November/December period in response to a more dovish outlook for the Fed, USD longs then consolidated for a lengthy period. Another leg lower occurred in mid-March. Better US economic data may support the USD in the next set of data.
- Short EUR positions dropped lower last week breaking the recent trend. Better than expected Q1 Eurozone growth data may have offered some support.
- The level of JPY shorts dropped sharply last week as tension in the market regarding US/China trade talks and Iran continued to lurch higher.
- Net short GBP positions dropped back on hopes for a breakthrough in cross-party Brexit talks remain.
- CHF net shorts remained essentially consolidative. They remain at relatively elevated levels considering the rise of risk aversion in the market.
- CAD net shorts edged higher, breaking the recent trend.
- AUD net shorts increased again ahead of the election and on speculation of a potential June RBA rate cut.