Citi discusses the EUR outlook around next week's ECB June policy meeting.

"Markets also now eye the ECB June 6th meeting where a decision about (1) TLTRO lending rate likely to be less generous as per recent ECB speak, and (2) a possible extension to the calendar-based part of forward guidance on interest rates though with euro short rates now pricing the first ECB hike in Q4’2021, an extension of ECB forward guidance is unlikely to have much impact. However, with euro zone (especially German) manufacturing data weak and leading to the continuing decline in market based longer term inflation expectations to 2016 lows (reflected in German Bund yields now at -16bp and only 4.4bp away from the 2016 record lows), it is difficult to see how the ECB can be anything but dovish at its June 6th meeting – likely to limit any rebound in EURUSD until then".