Analysts at TD Securities are expecting a modest decline in the US ISM manufacturing index to 52.5 (market: 53.0) in May as they expect trade-related headwinds to remain a major obstacle for recovery in the short-term.

• “ISM-adjusted regional surveys failed to improve in May, with declines in three out of the six published surveys we track, which points to decline in inventories as the main source of weakness. Moreover, a recent spate of weak growth in core durable goods orders, a downside surprise in the Markit PMI survey, and another below-50 China manufacturing PMI print also boost the odds for a downside surprise in May.
• Construction spending (market: 0.4%) will be released alongside ISM to provide an update on building investment for April, while new vehicle sales for May (market: 16.83m units) will round out the data calendar.”