Timme Spakman, economist at ING, points out that world trade volume declined by 0.7% in April and the outlook for a rebound seems difficult given export orders continued to slow further in May.

“The trade war is really starting to bite and this can be clearly seen in global trade flows. Since the further escalation of the trade war, we have seen the biggest fall in world trade since 2009 during the last few months of 2018 - and trade volumes haven't recovered since. The month on month decline in April signifies the effects of the trade war as the decline is mostly concentrated in US and Chinese trade flows. The outlook for trade remains bleak as new export orders are slowly converging on the negative side of their historic means. We expect the trade war will get worse before any deals are closed.