Josh Nye, the senior economist at Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), notes that Canada's GDP rose 0.3% in April, showing further easing in some of the key headwinds that weighed on the country's economy in the last two quarters - namely a slowdown in the energy sector and housing.
- “In fact, the mining, oil and gas industry saw one of its strongest monthly increases in recent years as output ramped up alongside higher production limits in Alberta.
- The increase in April GDP, coming on the heels of a 0.5% gain in March, leaves Q2 growth tracking north of 2% (vs. 0.3% annualized in Q4/18-Q1/19). This return to above-trend growth is happening somewhat sooner than the BoC thought—they’ll likely revise up their Q2 forecast (last at 1.3%) on July 10.
- The key question is whether rising trade tensions and a softer global outlook will result in downward revisions to domestic growth over the second half of the year.”