Analysts at TD Securities continue to expect the UK inflation to come in roughly in line with the BoE's forecasts from the May IR, with headline CPI of 2.0% y/y in June (mkt also at 2.0%).

“The fall in crude oil prices into June should weigh on the headline figure, and clothing discounts may have been steeper than normal in June with the poor weather for the first part of the month, though this could be balanced out by a boost in other areas from the steep depreciation of GBP through the spring. We look for core CPI to edge up from 1.7% to 1.8% y/y (mkt: 1.8%), back to where it was in Feb-Apr this year.”