The S&P 500 Index is now trading near its fair value, with limited further upside after its 19% climb so far this year, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

“The path forward for index ROE (return on equity) is likely to be challenging, although lower interest rates and lower tax rates may provide support,” Goldman strategists including David Kostin wrote in a note to clients. Negative revisions to 2020 earnings-per-share forecasts and “policy uncertainty” will limit upside potential, they wrote.

Benchmark American equity gauges reached record highs this month as investors bet that Fed interest-rate cuts will ensure that the economy avoids a major downturn. Traders are fully pricing a quarter-point cut at the July 30-31 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.