CIBC Research discusses EUR/USD outlook in light of its expectations of the ECB's monetary policy path over the coming months. CIBC now targets EUR/USD at 1.16 by year-end.

"An upcoming ECB monetary ease, which policymakers signalled in the June minutes, has kept the euro in check, blocking the gains we might have typically seen amidst Fed dovishness. But its direction from here will depend on the degree to which the ECB reaches for the big guns. While we’re in line with consensus in expecting an announcement at Draghi’s penultimate meeting on September 12th, our projected 10 bp cut in the repo rate (to -0.5%) would be smaller than some in market are now looking for, a plus for the euro," CIBC projects. Current euro levels already capture the generally dovish guidance that Draghi has extended into 2020. But although it remains below the inflation target, the 5y5y inflation swap has rebounded from a double bottom, perhaps a signal that the worst of the disinflation fears are behind us," CIBC a notes.