Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, notes that EUR/USD has eased lower following the erosion of the March and mid-June lows at 1.1181/76 and attention has reverted to 1.1110/06 the April and May lows.

“It is on the defensive very near term and while we look for this to ideally hold the initial test (we have a 13 count on the 240 minute chart), failure here on a closing basis will introduce scope to the 1.0980 2018-2019 support line, which in turn guards the 78.6% retracement at 1.0814/78.6% retracement. The intraday Elliott wave counts indicate that the 1110/06 lows should hold. Initial resistance lies at 1.1285, the 11th July high guards the 55 week ma at 1.1382. The market will need to regain the 55 week ma at 1.1382 to generate upside interest.”