Mazen Issa, the senior FX strategist at TD Securities, notes that the Fed's July minutes will take center stage today and TD expects that a policy divide over the future path of policy will surface.
- “We would not be surprised either that the minutes also reveal a debate among some participants who do not believe that the Fed should be cutting at all. We are sympathetic to both sides of the debate, as Powell and co are between a rock and a hard place as far as facing external pressures to ease; both from Trump and the bond market. To this end, we are more circumspect that the bond market will show much sympathy to a division in the Minutes, particularly with so much focus on Powell's appearance at Jackson Hole later this week.
- We expect the USD, on the other hand, to show more deference to this division, however, and at the expense of EUR and JPY, as neither offers a compelling positive offset at the moment.”