Analysts at TD Securities say that their base case sees a 20bps rate cut with tiering, €40bn/m of QE, and no rate hikes from ECB tomorrow until at least mid-2021.

• “We're more comfortable with the rates view than QE, as QE will likely be a contentious decision.
• FX: Our dovish ECB call has us looking for downside risks to EURUSD. We think spot will be more sensitive to a large QE announcement than rate cuts as much of the expected Fed/ECB policy path differential already looks priced.”