• FOMC: A hawkish cut - CIBC

Market news

19 September 2019

FOMC: A hawkish cut - CIBC

CIBC discusses its reaction to  FOMC policy decision. "If a central bank can seems a bit hawkish on the very day they announce a rate cut, the Fed may have managed to do just that, in part due to the divisions among FOMC members about what lies ahead. While approving a quarter point cut on the target rate (and an extra 5 bps off the rate paid on overnight reserves in an effort to cool the crunch we've seen in funding rates in the last couple of days), the Fed avoided promising a lot more to come. The "dot" forecast doesn't have any further cuts this year or next, in terms of the median dot, but we note that there were 7 dots showing another quarter point cut this year, and we suspect that more of the hawks are among regional presidents who don't always vote. We'll therefore stick to our call for one more cut this year, and then a pause through 2020. There were two dissents in favour of no cut, and one for a 50 bp move. There were no meaningful changes in growth or inflation forecasts, but clearly, there's still a lot of uncertainty surround that path, and in the policy assumptions on trade etc. that go with it," CIBC adds.

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