• UK GDP contracted in line with forecasts in Q2

Market news

30 September 2019

UK GDP contracted in line with forecasts in Q2

Office for National Statistics said, UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have fallen by 0.2% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2019, unrevised from the previous estimate.

When compared with the same quarter a year ago, UK GDP increased by 1.3% to Quarter 2 2019; down from 2.1% to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2019. Economists had expected a 1.2% increase.

Services provided the only positive contribution to growth in the output approach to GDP, with growth slowing to 0.1% in the latest quarter.

Private consumption, government consumption and net trade contributed positively, while gross capital formation contributed negatively to GDP growth in Quarter 2 2019.

GDP was estimated to have increased by 1.4% between 2017 and 2018, unrevised from previous estimates; this was lower than the upwardly revised 1.9% growth seen between 2016 and 2017.

Data in this bulletin are consistent with our annual UK National Accounts, The Blue Book 2019 publication to be published on 31 October 2019; estimates therefore incorporate new data and methods throughout the time series.

A separate report from the ONS showed that business investment, in volume terms, was estimated to have fallen by 0.4% to £49.2 billion between Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2019 and Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2019; this follows a 0.8% increase in Quarter 1 2019, the first quarter-on-quarter increase in business investment since Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2017. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), in volume terms, was estimated to have fallen by 0.9% to £87.2 billion between Quarter 1 2019 and Quarter 2 2019. Between Quarter 2 2018 and Quarter 2 2019, business investment was estimated to have fallen by 1.4% from £49.9 billion; GFCF was estimated to have increased by 0.3% in the same period from £87.0 billion.

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