• U.S. natural rate of unemployment falling – Deutsche Bank

Market news

7 October 2019

U.S. natural rate of unemployment falling – Deutsche Bank

Analysts at Deutsche Bank note the latest U.S. NFP report, which was released on Friday and followed jarringly poor ISM surveys earlier last week, ended up being a bit of damp squib with something for both the bulls and the bears. 

  • “The headline change in payrolls was slightly below consensus (136,000 versus 145,000), but the employment rate fell 0.2pp to a new 50-year low of 3.5%. The private payrolls figure was similar, coming in at 114,000 compared to expectations for 130,000. These misses were offset somewhat by a healthy +45,000 net revision to the previous two months.
  • More interestingly, wage growth was flat on the month, taking the year-on-year figure to 2.9%, its weakest pace in a year. Our economists think this will make the Fed more confident that the natural rate of unemployment has fallen, which should still enable them to cut rates later this month.”

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