Petr Krpata, an FX strategist at ING, notes the main event of the week for sterling is the general election on Thursday.
- "The market is currently partly pricing in a Conservative victory (the final election debate last Friday and recent polls continue to point to such an outcome), with our short-term final fair value model suggesting a more than 2%
- Brexit resolution premium currently priced into GBP. Should the Conservative party gain a majority, we expect GBP/USD to move into the 1.34-35 area and EUR/GBP to drop to 0.82/0.83 levels.
- Conversely, a hung parliament would lead to a full pricing out of the GBP Brexit resolution premium, a rebuilding of sterling speculative shorts and GBP/USD likely dropping to 1.28 (and EUR/GBP rising above 0.8600 this week)."