Analysts at Danske Bank believe they saw the first sign of a turn in the Chinese business cycle in October, but a continued moderate recovery has hinged on a de-escalation of the US-China trade war and this is exactly what we got with the phase-one deal.

• "Our GDP forecast for 2020 has been 6.0% for some time based on the assumption of easing trade tensions and increasing effects of the policy stimulus. We stick to this view and now see risks as more balanced after having been mainly to the downside."