• IEA: there is no feasible agreement that could cut oil supply by enough to offset demand losses

Market news

15 April 2020

IEA: there is no feasible agreement that could cut oil supply by enough to offset demand losses

  • Implied stock buildup of 12 mil bpd in 1H threatens to overwhelm logistics

  • Forecasts a drop in global oil demand by a record 9.3 mil bpd

  • Output deal by OPEC+ and other countries will not immediately rebalance the market

  • Oil production cuts will lower the peak supply

  • April oil demand set to fall 29 mln bpd YoY to level last seen in 1995.

  • Q2 demand set to fall 23.1 mln bpd YoY and in December to fall 2.7 mln bpd YoY.

  • Global oil supply set to plunge by record 12 mln bpd in May after OPEC+ producer cut pact.

  • Non-OPEC output could fall by 5.2 mln bpd in Q4 and by 2.3 mln bpd for 2020.

  • Predicts output falls by other producers, chiefly US and Canada, of around 3.5 mln bpd in coming months on lower prices.

  • Forecasts 2020 global refining throughput to fall by 7.6 mln bpd to 74.3 mln bpd.

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