• Goldman Sachs says a second wave of coronavirus could make the Fed rethink negative interest rates

Market news

14 May 2020

Goldman Sachs says a second wave of coronavirus could make the Fed rethink negative interest rates

CNBC reports that another "big setback" in the U.S. economy could prompt the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates into negative territory - but such a monetary policy wouldn't be "very helpful," a Goldman Sachs strategist said.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday reiterated that the central bank is not considering negative interest rates at this point, even as other central banks - such as the Bank of England - appeared to be opened to the idea.

When asked what could change the Fed's mind on negative interest rates, Zach Pandl, Goldman Sachs' co-head of global foreign exchange, rates and emerging markets strategy, raised the possibility of a second wave of coronavirus cases that could derail the upcoming economic recovery that many analysts and investors have expected.

"If the economy has another big setback ... where you have a second wave of infections and it would really take the recovery off course, then I do think that that opens up a possibility of a range of additional actions," he told CNBC.

However, "even in that scenario, I think fiscal policy would be the first step. I don't think that cutting rates to negative territory would potentially be very helpful even in that environment," he said.

"But who knows, policymakers are going to want to try new things if the economy is really struggling for a period of time," he added. "So in that scenario, perhaps they can consider it, otherwise I think it's pretty low probability at this point."

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