• European session review: GBP strengthens against safe-haven currencies as risk appetite improved

Market news

12 June 2020

European session review: GBP strengthens against safe-haven currencies as risk appetite improved

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
06:00United KingdomManufacturing Production (YoY)April-9.7%-19.9%-28.5%
06:00United KingdomManufacturing Production (MoM) April-4.6%-15.8%-24.3%
06:00United KingdomIndustrial Production (YoY)April-8.2%-19.3%-24.4%
06:00United KingdomIndustrial Production (MoM)April-4.2%-15%-20.3%
06:00United KingdomGDP m/mApril-5.8%-18.4%-20.4%
06:00United KingdomGDP, y/yApril-5.7% -24.5%
06:00United KingdomTotal Trade BalanceApril-3.96 0.31
06:45FranceCPI, m/mMay0%0%0.1%
06:45FranceCPI, y/yMay0.3%0.2%0.4%
09:00EurozoneIndustrial production, (MoM)April-11.9%-20%-17.1%
09:00EurozoneIndustrial Production (YoY)April-13.5%-29.5%-28%


GBP rose against USD, CHF and JPY in the European session on Friday as investors' appetite for risk assets improved. At the same time, it was little changed against EUR, and fell against commodity currencies, such as AUD, NZD and CAD.

However, the further growth of the pound was limited by disappointing UK's GDP data and preserved Brexit-related concerns. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that Britain's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by a record 20.4 percent m/m in April after a 5.8 percent m/m decline in March as government restrictions on movement to control the spread of the coronavirus dramatically reduced economic activity. GDP was expected to shrink by 18.4 percent m/m. In y/y terms, the UK's economy tumbled by a record 24.5 percent, following a 5.7 percent fall in the previous month and compared to economists' forecast of a 22.6 percent plunge. 

Lack of progress in EU-UK post-Brexit trade talks also continued to weigh on GBP. Downing Street confirmed that the UK PM Boris Johnson is to take part in a summit with the EU leaders, including European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, European Council president Charles Michel and the president of the European Parliament David-Maria Sassoli on Monday, June 15. This high-level call is set to begin at 12:30 GMT. PM Johnson hopes to inject political momentum into the stalled process following weeks of stalemate. 

The fourth round of talks on a post-Brexit trade deal ended a week ago without achieving a breakthrough, but the sides agreed to intensify the pace of negotiation in July. European Commission (EC) publishes an addendum for future relationship negotiations, which outlines negotiating rounds for July to September.

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