25 June 2020
ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: Governing Council is ready to adjust full range of its instruments, including TLTROs, policy interest rates and forward guidance
The ECB
released account of its June 3-4 monetary policy meeting. It noted that:
- ECB’s monetary
policy measures, together with the Franco-German recovery fund proposal, which
was subsequently broadly taken up in package proposed by European Commission,
had reduced downside tail risks for euro area;
- Broad-based
decline in risk premia had offset the tightening impact of deterioration in
macroeconomic fundamentals;
- The latest
easing of financial conditions in euro area in part hinged on the contribution
of fiscal and monetary policy to mitigating fragmentation risks across markets
and jurisdictions;
- Survey data and
real-time indicators for economic activity had shown some positive signs as containment
measures were gradually eased. Nonetheless, these readings indicated only minor
improvement compared with speed at which indicators had plummeted in preceding
two months;
- PEPP [pandemic
emergency purchase programme] was a measure which was proportionate to counter
the serious risks to price stability, the monetary policy transmission
mechanism and the economic outlook in the euro area, which are posed by the
outbreak and escalating diffusion of COVID-19;
- It was argued
that the proportionality assessment of any monetary policy measure had to
consider, among other things, the degree to which the measure contributed to
achieving the monetary policy objective;
- The PEPP and
the APP were proportionate measures under the current conditions for pursuing
the price stability objective;
- It was
highlighted that asset purchases were an essential tool with which monetary
policy could affect macroeconomic developments;
- There was now
ample evidence that asset purchase programmes in general and PSPP in particular
had proven effective in achieving their intended effects on euro area economy
and thereby in maintaining price stability;
- Although the
quantitative estimates varied to some extent and were subject to usual model
uncertainty, overall evidence underpinned view that PSPP had had positive
impact on macroeconomic outcomes;
- There was broad
agreement among members that while different weights might be attached to benefits
and side effects of asset purchases, negative side effects had so far been
clearly outweighed by positive effects of asset purchases on the economy in the
pursuit of price stability;
- It could not be
ruled out that unintended effects could increase over time and eventually
outweigh the overall positive effects;
- There was broad
agreement among members to reiterate that Governing Council would do everything
necessary within its mandate and that it continued to stand ready to adjust all
of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moved towards the
Governing Council’s aim in a sustained manner;
- It needed to be
highlighted that monetary and fiscal policies were increasingly complementing
each other in current situation;
- Governing
Council continued to stand ready to adjust all of its instruments, as
appropriate, to ensure that inflation moved towards its aim in sustained
manner, in line with its commitment to symmetry