Bloomberg reports that according to strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG, the recent pullback in U.S. stocks could be close to an end if history is a guide,
Its magnitude has matched a “typical” selloff in the S&P 500 since the financial crisis, albeit at a faster pace, wrote a team led by Goldman’s David Kostin in a note. And options positioning -- at the core of the weakness -- has normalized, noted their counterparts at Deutsche including Srineel Jalagani.
“Despite the sharp sell-off in the past week, we remain optimistic about the path of the U.S. equity market in coming months,” wrote the Goldman strategists. “Since the financial crisis, the typical S&P 500 pullback of 5% or more has lasted for 20 trading days and extended by 7% from peak to trough, matching the magnitude of the most recent pullback if not the speed.”
Meanwhile, the Deutsche team focused on the impact of the options market, using a metric that looks at the number of bearish contracts relative to bullish ones. It had fallen to the bottom of its 10-year range -- indicating an extreme level of positive sentiment -- but after the correction has already recovered to “about average” levels, the team said.
“Historically, corrections in the put-call ratio have tended to have sharp but short-lived market impacts,” the strategists wrote.
Still, both teams pointed to the U.S. elections as the key source of uncertainty for markets ahead.