CNBC reports that economist from Moody’s Analytics said that the U.S. economy could experience a “slight downturn” in the first quarter of 2021 if the Covid stimulus bill is not passed.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell announced Sunday that Congress had agreed on a $900 billion coronavirus relief package after months of failed negotiations. American lawmakers are expected to vote on the bill on Monday.

“This is really a critical factor, perhaps the most important factor right now in terms of the very near-term outlook for the U.S. economy,” Steve Cochrane, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Moody’s Analytics, told CNBC.

He explained that the U.S. economy appeared to be on a “downward trajectory” coming into this month, with moderating retail sales and rising claims for unemployment benefits.

Without another Covid relief package, the economy could see a “slight downturn” instead of a “mild positive growth” in the first quarter of next year, added Cochrane.  

“And then we get beyond the first quarter, maybe the vaccine gets spread at least enough to begin creating some improved confidence in the economy and we continue moving on,” he said.