Bloomberg reports that according to mortgage lender Halifax, U.K. home prices could slump as much as 5% next year as unemployment rises and government incentives end.

House prices surged the most since 2016 this year as demand for more space, state support for wages and a temporary reduction in a property transaction tax offset the economic damage from the Covid-19 pandemic. That won’t last, Halifax said Monday.

“The post-summer surge in house prices is unlikely to be sustained,” said Managing Director Russell Galley. Because of “lower levels of demand,” market “activity is likely to slow.”