The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reported on Monday its latest survey of retailers showed retail sales volume balance stood at -3 in the year to December, up sharply from -23 in November. That was the highest reading since the positive one in September, pointing to a recovery in retail sales volumes that brought them broadly flat for the year to December after two months of sharp declines.

Economist had forecast the reading to improve to 0.

However, retail sales volumes are expected to fall steeply in the year to January (-33).

The report also revealed that orders placed on suppliers were broadly flat (balance of -4, from -10 in November), but are seen to decrease again next month (-21). Meanwhile, stock levels in relation to expected sales were seen as broadly adequate (balance of +3, from +14), however, this was the lowest balance since September 2009. Relative stock levels are forecast to advance next month (+8).

“It says something about the challenges the retail sector has faced during 2020 that stable sales volumes in the run-up to Christmas were seen as a good result for the time of year”, noted Ben Jones, CBI Principal Economist. “The new year looks set for an unpromising start, with retailers anticipating a sharp fall in sales in January. An expected deterioration in the labour market will likely weigh on household spending, even assuming the roll-out of Covid-19 vaccines paves the way for a gradual lifting of restrictions as the year progresses.”