14 May 2021
ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: A further appreciation of exchange rate could have adverse implications for inflation outlook
The
ECB released account of its April 21-22 monetary policy meeting. It noted that:
- Incoming
information, including high-frequency indicators, indicated that economic
activity was likely to have contracted again in Q1, but pointed to resumption
of growth in Q2
- Progress
with vaccination campaigns and envisaged gradual relaxation of containment
measures underpinned expectation of firm
rebound in economic activity, especially in H2 of 2021
- Risks
to Eurozone's growth outlook continued to be on downside in near term, but
remained more balanced over medium term
- Underlying
price pressures were subdued in context of weak demand and significant slack in
labour and product markets, but were expected to increase somewhat in 2021
- Inflation
would exhibit some volatility for the remainder of the year
- As
regards external communication, two aspects were important: 1) Governing
Council needed to reaffirm its current practice of conducting comprehensive
joint evaluation of prevailing state of financing conditions against
inflation outlook at monetary policy meetings in which policy deliberations
were informed by new round of staff projections (new comprehensive joint
assessment should be conducted at ECB's next monetary policy meeting in June);
2) it was important to highlight that calibrating purchases under PEPP so as to
counter adverse effects of the pandemic on medium-term inflation outlook was
only one element in achieving aim of stabilising medium-term inflation around
levels below, but close to, 2%. Ample monetary policy support remained crucial beyond
pandemic period in order to support inflation and return it to inflation aim.
Governing Council, therefore, needed to continue to stand ready to adjust all
of its instruments, as necessary, to fulfil its mandate
- With
respect to latest exchange rate developments, it was noted that euro had
appreciated slightly since Governing Council’s last meeting. It was underlined
that a further appreciation of the exchange rate could have adverse
implications for inflation outlook
- It
was also stressed that outlook for both growth and inflation remained dependent
on support of fiscal policy measures and very accommodative monetary policy
stance
- Members
generally expected stronger recovery to take place in H2 of 2021 but emphasised
that uncertainty surrounding near-term growth outlook remained high
- With
regard to recent developments in inflation expectations, members noted that
longer-term inflation expectations reported in ECB Survey of Professional
Forecasters were unchanged, at 1.7%, while market-based indicators of inflation
expectations had increased, although this increase mainly reflected increase in
risk premia
- Members
expressed broad agreement with proposal made by Mr. Lane to leave ECB’s
monetary policy configuration unchanged and to reconfirm the very accommodative
stance
- It
was also widely agreed that it should be highlighted that future pace of
purchases under PEPP was data-dependent and would continue to be based on joint
assessment of financing conditions and inflation outlook
- Governing
Council’s decision in March to undertake significantly higher PEPP purchases
than during first few months of the year remained appropriate