FXStreet reports that according to economists at MUFG Bank, an increase of around 1 million on Nonfarm Payrolls should lift yields and USD.

“There is likely less appetite for putting on fresh risk ahead of the key event of the week – Nonfarm payrolls data from the US on Friday. That will start to come into greater focus today with the release of the ADP employment data – the market consensus is for a gain of 650K in May after a 742K gain in April. If the consensus print was confirmed tomorrow and on Friday it would imply the marked weaker than expected April NFP print would not be captured by ADP and a divergence would exist. A consensus print in ADP may see the NFP consensus of 650K creep a little higher ahead of the release on Friday.”

“We suspect something closer to a 1 M increase in NFP would be needed to notably lift yields and the dollar.”