FXStreet reports that strategists at OCBC Bank see a low possibility of oil returning to $100. 

“July 2021 will see the last of OPEC+’s plans to ease its pandemic supply curbs, with production to increase a total of 850kbpd. Despite that increase, the total output level of OPEC+ is still 6mbpd below its Oct’18 baseline.”

“Our base case is for global supply to increase by 2mbpd by end 2022, of which largely from OPEC+ and Iran. Should Iran’s oil embargo be lifted in the next 18 months, we expect 2mbpd of Iranian crude to return to international waters, in which case we expect OPEC+ to keep constant its 6mbpd output cut through 2022.”

“We see Brent peaking at $80 by end 2021, but the flip in the global supply balance from deficit to surplus next year means Brent may begin its retracement next year towards its long-term average price of $65.”