30 June 2021
BoE's chief economist Haldane: The time calls for "immediate thought, and action, on unwinding QE currently being provided"
- BoE's ongoing review into the process and sequencing of QE unwind is a welcome opportunity to do so
- Asymmetric QE response function nudges us towards that fiscal danger zone and adds to concerns about erosion of monetary policy independence
- This is the most dangerous moment inflation-targeting has so far faced
- Says he expects UK inflation to be nearer to 4% than 3%
- We would experience a Minsky Moment for monetary policy, a taper tantrum without taper
- Even if just a risk, it is a risk that is rising fast and which is best managed ex-ante rather than responded to ex-post; if this risk were to be realised, everyone would lose