• Risk of a hawkish surprise from FOMC: any USD gains may manifest vs. JPY or GBP - Credit Agricole

Market news

28 July 2021

Risk of a hawkish surprise from FOMC: any USD gains may manifest vs. JPY or GBP - Credit Agricole

eFXdata reports that analysts at Credit Agricole CIB Research offer their expectations for today's FOMC policy meeting.

"We think that the bigger risk on the day would be a ‘hawkish surprise’ similar to the June policy meeting. Indeed, evidence that the recent economic data releases have started to shift the balance of risks at the FOMC in favour of policy normalization in coming months could encourage the front-loading of rate hike expectations and boost UST yields. The USD could regain some ground on back of growing rate and yields advantage." 

"Depending on how resilient risk appetite is in the face of tightening US financial conditions, any USD gains would manifest themselves vs low-yielders like the JPY (under risk on) or risk-correlated currencies like the GBP (under risk off)."

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