- Fed's Vice Chair Clarida believes that necessary conditions for raising the target range for the federal funds rate will have been met by year-end 2022
Market news
4 August 2021
Fed's Vice Chair Clarida believes that necessary conditions for raising the target range for the federal funds rate will have been met by year-end 2022
- Says he believes that necessary conditions for raising the target range for the federal funds rate will have been met by year-end 2022, if his outlook for inflation and outlook for unemployment realized [the necessary conditions are that "labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with FOMC's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2% and is on track to moderately exceed 2% for some time]
- Commencing policy normalization in 2023 would, under these conditions, be entirely consistent with our new flexible average inflation targeting framework
- Says his projections for headline and core PCE inflation are also similar to those provided in Fed's most recent Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)
- If, as projected, core PCE inflation this year does come in at, or certainly above, 3%, I will consider that much more than a "moderate" overshoot of our 2% longer-run inflation objective
- I believe that the risks to my outlook for inflation are to the upside
- Under present circumstances, support from fiscal policy in tandem with appropriate monetary policy can fully offset the constraint of effective lower bound
- FOMC is rightly basing its judgments on outcomes, not just the outlook. Looking ahead, our policy decisions will continue to depend on data in hand at the time, along with their implications for outlook and associated risks
- In coming meetings, FOMC will again assess the economy's progress toward our goals. As we have said, we will provide advance notice before making any changes to our purchases
- Says he can certainly see Fed announcing tapering later this year
- Would support announcing a moderation in asset purchases later this year
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