CNBC reports that according to Wells Fargo Securities’ Michael Schumacher, it’s premature to assume July’s strong numbers will push the Fed meaningfully closer to tapering its monthly bond purchases.

“This report was pretty strong. If there’s another strong one after it, it’s conceivable the Fed may start talking about tapering in a pretty serious way. Let’s say in October,” the firm’s head of macro strategy said.

Under Schumacher’s scenario, the Fed could start to implement tapering as soon as this November. The move would likely put upward pressure on the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield.

But there’s a wildcard to Schumacher’s forecast: Covid-19 delta variant cases. The surge could put negative pressure on yields.

“It’s an open question just how severely delta turns out to be and also how aggressively governments react to it,” he said.

Schumacher doubts the government will issue dramatic lockdowns, but he warns new constraints on movement would hurt economic activity.