26 August 2021
ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: The need to revise forward guidance on interest rates was emphasised
The
ECB released accounts of its July 21-22 monetary policy meeting. It noted that:
- Members
agreed that it was necessary to align the forward guidance on interest rates
with revised formulation of price stability objective in ECB’s new monetary
policy strategy;
- The need
to revise forward guidance on interest rates was emphasised, in order to
provide a credible commitment to bringing inflation up to new target;
- Reformulated
forward guidance was best understood as a set of conditions that would help
guide ECB’s actions in pursuit of its inflation target, as defined in the new
strategy; it did not necessarily imply “lower for longer” interest rates if it
ultimately succeeded in anchoring inflation expectations at target, as intended;
- It
was remarked that forward guidance on interest rates, if credible, should
reduce extent to which other instruments needed to be deployed;
- New
formulation of forward guidance was widely seen as finely balanced;
- It
was noted that forward guidance language should clearly dispel notion that 2%
was a ceiling for inflation, given that new strategy explicitly allowed for
moderate and transitory overshooting;
- Members
put forward a number of considerations. On one hand, the case was made for
strengthening the forward guidance on interest rates even further… On the other
hand, it was cautioned that requiring inflation to durably reach 2% at an
earlier point in time would risk undermining medium-term orientation of
monetary policy;
- Credibility
of Governing Council’s forward guidance was seen as key to its success