The
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 0.1
percent at its September monetary policy meeting. The move was widely expected
by the markets. In addition, the 3-year bond yields target was maintained at
0.1 percent, while the bond purchases at $4 billion a week were extended until
at least February 2022.
In a
statement on the RBA's latest policy decision, its governor Philip Lowe noted:
- Recovery
in Australian economy has been interrupted by Delta outbreak and the associated
restrictions on activity;
- GDP
is expected to decline materially in the September quarter and unemployment rate
will move higher over coming months;
- This
setback to economic expansion is expected to be only temporary; Delta outbreak
is expected to delay, but not derail, recovery;
- There
is, however, uncertainty about timing and pace of this bounce-back and it is likely
to be slower than that earlier in the year… In our central scenario, economy
will be growing again in December quarter and is expected to be back around its
pre-Delta path in H2 2022;
- Board's
decision to extend bond purchases at $4 billion a week until at least February
2022 reflects delay in economic recovery and increased uncertainty associated
with Delta outbreak;
- Board
will continue to review bond purchase program in light of economic conditions
and health situation, and their implications for the expected progress towards
full employment and the inflation target;
- Board
is committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions to achieve return
to full employment in Australia and inflation consistent with target. It will
not increase cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2-3% target
range;
- Central
scenario for economy is that this condition will not be met before 2024.
Meeting this condition will require labour market to be tight enough to
generate wages growth that is materially higher than it is currently